Dangers of a wider war

A DANGEROUS new front has opened in the Middle East war. Yemen and the Red Sea are now the latest battleground. This has widened the regional conflict and added another layer to the escalating confrontation between the US and Iran.

The entry of new actors, Iran-aligned Ansarullah Houthis and Iraqi militias, poses a serious security and economic threat to Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have soared as a result and fuel supplies to global markets have become more uncertain. Diplomacy is deadlocked. Efforts to revive talks between the US and Iran had stalled before these developments. Now they appear to have hit a wall.

The dramatic turn of events came with the Houthis’ lightning military offensive along Yemen’s west coast, which culminated in their capture of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha and Perim island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. This gave them control of a key shipping route. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces failed to prevent the advance and the loss of more strategic territory to the Houthis. At the same time, the Houthis launched attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The vital East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia was forced to close after a drone strike by Iraq-based militias. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of another maritime chokepoint — the narrow Bab al-Mandeb strait — has severely constrained KSA’s ability to export oil.

Tehran claims the Houthis are acting independently. Nevertheless, the action by the Houthis and Iraqi militias could have been coordinated by Iran to mount pressure on the US and counter its attempt to loosen Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz by American warships escorting more vessels through the waterway. It may also be a res­ponse to US economic warfare which is placing fur­ther strain on the Iranian economy. Multiple Saudi air strikes on the Houthis have failed to dislodge them from the territory they have seized across Yemen. The militia continues to control the entire western coast of the country along the Red Sea.

The fighting marks the re-eruption of a conflict that began in 2014 in Yemen’s civil war between a Saudi-led coalition spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Houthis. This came to a halt with a ceasefire in 2022. But the truce broke down this July when the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports following an attack on Sanaa airport by Saudi-backed forces.

Beyond the economic fallout the political implications of a spreading conflict are also serious.

The deteriorating situation confronts MBS with a dilemma: to escalate or pursue a diplomatic path. His efforts to secure US military intervention have not succeeded so far although there are unconfirmed reports that the US is weighing options to launch military strikes against the Houthis. He spoke twice to President Donald Trump asking for direct US help but Washington has been reluctant to join the fight. Trump’s comments during a visit to Ireland are revealing. “The Houthis called us and they don’t want to fight with us,” he said. “They don’t want us to go after them and would much prefer not having us involved, and they’re letting most ships go through. It’s just one country they’re not too happy with. And we’ll get that straightened out.”

The remarks indicate Trump’s unwillingness to intervene even as his most important Gulf ally comes under fierce attack. Washington clearly doesn’t want to shift focus from the conflict with Iran, where it is bogged down, having failed to gain the upper hand and compel Iran to submit to its demands. The US military is already overstretched and facing a serious munition shortfall after nearly seven months of war. These problems will worsen if the US intervenes in the Saudi-Houthis conflict. The US Central Comm­and estimates the Iran war has cost over $43 billion.

Meanwhile, speculation that Riyadh may invoke the Makkah joint defence agreement with Pakistan and Turkiye has so far come to nothing. Pakistan has given no indication of going beyond verbal support to the kingdom and condemnation of Houthi actions even though it has troops and fighter jets deployed there. As the Foreign Office spokesman put it, the pact is defensive in nature and no military plan is under discussion. Prince Mohammed has however held talks with the Centcom chief amid reports that the US is helping KSA with targeting and intelligence.

For all the assessments by many Western analysts that Iran’s regional allies have been weakened by the war with the US, the latest events show this is not the case. The ‘axis of resistance’ is not only intact but potent enough to launch a two-pronged assault on KSA plunging it into a crisis. Meanwhile, Iran’s leverage has increased because in addition to its grip over the Strait of Hormuz its ally, the Houthi militia, now controls the Red Sea energy chokepoint, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which can be seen as a strategic gain for Tehran.

The economic impact of an escalating wider conflict can be far-reaching. Already the oil price has soared to above $100 a barrel. Gas prices too have risen. Uncertainty about global energy supplies, which are already running low, may drive prices even higher. This despite the Houthi leadership’s assurance that it will not block all commercial shipping in the Red Sea, only Saudi-linked ships. With its oil production having fallen, the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has already cut crude oil shipments. The damage to its 1,200-kilometre export pipeline threatens the loss of four per cent of global oil supply. In the US, the oil price rise has contributed to pushing US borrowing costs to their highest level since 2007. The bond market is being adversely affected by fears over energy prices and inflation.

Beyond the economic fallout for countries across the world, the political implications of a spreading conflict are no less serious. With new actors having entered the fray — and more might be sucked in — diplomacy will face new challenges in forging agreements among so many players. This will make the diplomatic process more complex and difficult even if there is willingness among the warring parties to find a negotiated end to the conflict. Unfortunately, a regional meeting in Oman between Iran and Gulf states to discuss control of the Strait of Hormuz and work out an interim arrangement has been postponed. For now, neither the US nor Iran are prepared to budge from their position and resume negotiations. In the end, the outcome may hinge on who can endure economic pain the longest.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2026